New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints30
- Brandon IngramAssists8
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints17
- Domantas SabonisAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–100
- Q412.1Keon Ellis makes 16-foot jumper (Colby Jones assists)133–100
- Q424.1Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)133–98
- Q439.1Kessler Edwards makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)130–98
- Q453.1Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 2 of 2130–95
- Q453.1Pelicans offensive team rebound129–95
- Q453.1Jordan Hawkins misses free throw 1 of 2129–95
- Q453.1Colby Jones shooting foul129–95
- Q459.1Colby Jones makes two point shot (Alex Len assists)129–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:58De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot three pointerNO 2 – 3 SAC · SAC 53% → 60% +6SAC 53% → 60%+6 pts
- Q18:55CJ McCollum makes 29-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 9 – 5 SAC · NO 45% → 51% +6NO 45% → 51%+6 pts
- Q16:58Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 16 – 7 SAC · NO 56% → 62% +6NO 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q15:03Keegan Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)NO 20 – 12 SAC · SAC 33% → 39% +6SAC 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q14:06Jonas Valanciunas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 23 – 12 SAC · NO 61% → 67% +6NO 61% → 67%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SAC 51%
- Fair odds
- SAC -136
- NO +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.8 – 118.2 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +56 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +7 Elo | SAC 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 118.38th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 117.522nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +0.717th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 115.011th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.322nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.612th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 13–611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 3–0 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.