Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints25
- T.J. McConnellAssists10
- Jalen SmithRebounds13
Kings- Kevin HuerterPoints31
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–121
- Q40.0Kings offensive team rebound126–121
- Q40.0Malik Monk misses 27-foot three point shot126–121
- Q41.1Jalen Smith makes free throw 2 of 2126–121
- Q41.1T.J. McConnell enters the game for Obi Toppin125–121
- Q41.1Bennedict Mathurin enters the game for Myles Turner125–121
- Q41.1Keegan Murray enters the game for Alex Len125–121
- Q41.1Jalen Smith makes free throw 1 of 2125–121
- Q41.1Kevin Huerter personal foul124–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:55Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three pointer (Domantas Sabonis assists)IND 72 – 67 SAC · SAC 31% → 39% +9SAC 31% → 39%+9 pts
- Q37:35Obi Toppin makes 28-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 77 – 71 SAC · IND 55% → 65% +9IND 55% → 65%+9 pts
- Q34:40Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)IND 85 – 82 SAC · SAC 33% → 44% +10SAC 33% → 44%+10 pts
- Q34:11Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)IND 88 – 82 SAC · IND 57% → 67% +10IND 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q337.0Sasha Vezenkov makes 29-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)IND 97 – 89 SAC · SAC 15% → 23% +8SAC 15% → 23%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SAC 50%
- Fair odds
- SAC -132
- IND +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 122.5 – 124.6 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +45 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +1 Elo | SAC 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.2 | Points scored | 118.28th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.4 | Points allowed | 117.821st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.2 | Offense rating | 115.013th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 114.617th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 13–713th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.