Sacramento Kings at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints32
- Domantas SabonisAssists15
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints29
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game142–143
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime142–143
- OT0.0(00:00) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)142–143
- OT1.1Damian Lillard makes 32-foot three pointer142–143
- OT5.0De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2142–140
- OT5.0Kings offensive team rebound141–140
- OT5.0De'Aaron Fox misses free throw 1 of 2141–140
- OT5.0Malik Beasley personal take foul141–140
- OT9.1Kings Full timeout141–140
- OT11.1Kings Full timeout141–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41.0De'Aaron Fox makes driving layupSAC 128 – 128 MIL · SAC <1% → 50% +50SAC <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:56Pat Connaughton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)SAC 134 – 134 MIL · MIL 23% → 51% +28MIL 23% → 51%+28 pts
- OT1:44De'Aaron Fox makes 11-foot pullup jump shotSAC 136 – 134 MIL · SAC 49% → 70% +21SAC 49% → 70%+21 pts
- OT1:07Kevin Huerter makes 28-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 139 – 137 MIL · SAC 36% → 75% +39SAC 36% → 75%+39 pts
- OT1.1Damian Lillard makes 32-foot three pointerSAC 142 – 143 MIL · MIL <1% → >99% +100MIL <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3.5
- MIL 63%
- Fair odds
- MIL -122
- SAC +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 121.6 – 123.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +45 | +62 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +96 Elo | MIL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 124.52nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 119.424th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +5.17th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 119.33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 103.74th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 18–43rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.