Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints25
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints24
- Miles BridgesAssists6
- Nick RichardsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–98
- Q45.1Davion Mitchell defensive rebound123–98
- Q47.2Nick Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot123–98
- Q421.0JaVale McGee makes free throw 2 of 2123–98
- Q421.0JaVale McGee makes free throw 1 of 2122–98
- Q421.0Nathan Mensah personal foul121–98
- Q429.2Nathan Mensah makes two point shot121–98
- Q430.1Nathan Mensah offensive rebound121–96
- Q433.1Juan Toscano-Anderson blocks JT Thor 's 5-foot driving layup121–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:30Keegan Murray makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 23 – 25 CHA · SAC 51% → 57% +7SAC 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q11:50Terry Rozier makes 26-foot three pointerSAC 25 – 28 CHA · CHA 38% → 45% +7CHA 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q129.1De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point shot (Malik Monk assists)SAC 30 – 28 CHA · SAC 59% → 66% +7SAC 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q24:43Domantas Sabonis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 60 – 44 CHA · SAC 83% → 91% +8SAC 83% → 91%+8 pts
- Q24:30Ish Smith makes driving layupSAC 60 – 49 CHA · CHA 9% → 16% +7CHA 9% → 16%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4.5
- SAC 68%
- Fair odds
- SAC -172
- CHA +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 119.3 – 115.2 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +50 | −41 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Frank Ntilikina −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +130 Elo | SAC 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 109.527th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 120.025th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −10.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 108.726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 119.129th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.120th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 4–1226th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−41 Elo- Frank Ntilikina left tibia−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 0–1 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.