Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints28
- Terry RozierAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds12
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints22
- Coby WhiteAssists6
- Coby WhiteRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–104
- Q42.0shot clock turnover91–104
- Q426.0shot clock turnover91–104
- Q448.0Zach LaVine defensive rebound91–104
- Q450.1Nick Richards misses free throw 2 of 291–104
- Q450.1Hornets offensive team rebound91–104
- Q450.1Nick Richards misses free throw 1 of 291–104
- Q450.1Zach LaVine shooting foul91–104
- Q457.0Nick Richards defensive rebound91–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:12Nick Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (JT Thor assists)CHA 28 – 25 CHI · CHA 30% → 37% +7CHA 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q24:03Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ish Smith assists)CHA 36 – 36 CHI · CHA 25% → 32% +7CHA 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q22:10Cody Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)CHA 41 – 40 CHI · CHA 27% → 35% +7CHA 27% → 35%+7 pts
- Q39:18Dalen Terry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHA 47 – 53 CHI · CHI 74% → 81% +7CHI 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q39.1Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three point shotCHA 68 – 74 CHI · CHA 11% → 17% +7CHA 11% → 17%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -8.5
- CHI 79%
- Fair odds
- CHI -277
- CHA +277 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 106.8 – 114.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | +29 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | CHA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +232 Elo | CHI 79.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 109.328th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 112.110th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−10.5 | Margin | −2.823rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 110.624th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.4 | Defense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 11–920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.