Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints27
- DeMar DeRozanAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds15
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints39
- Terry RozierAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game119–112
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–112
- OT2.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound119–112
- OT5.1Miles Bridges misses 25-foot three point jumper119–112
- OT16.0Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2119–112
- OT16.0Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2118–112
- OT16.0Nick Smith Jr. personal take foul117–112
- OT16.0Coby White defensive rebound117–112
- OT18.1Miles Bridges misses 26-foot three point jumper117–112
- OT26.1DeMar DeRozan out of bounds bad pass turnover117–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:46Coby White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 95 – 90 CHA · CHI 65% → 79% +14CHI 65% → 79%+14 pts
- Q42:31Terry Rozier makes 22-foot step back jumpshotCHI 107 – 105 CHA · CHA 11% → 30% +19CHA 11% → 30%+19 pts
- Q446.1Miles Bridges makes 9-foot two point shot (Terry Rozier assists)CHI 107 – 107 CHA · CHA 20% → 49% +29CHA 20% → 49%+29 pts
- OT4:44Nikola Vucevic makes 17-foot jumper (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 109 – 107 CHA · CHI 53% → 66% +13CHI 53% → 66%+13 pts
- OT1:40Nick Smith Jr. makes 22-foot three point shot (Brandon Miller assists)CHI 115 – 112 CHA · CHA 4% → 19% +14CHA 4% → 19%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -5
- CHI 69%
- Fair odds
- CHI -156
- CHA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.3 – 107.9 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −42 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Frank Ntilikina −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +136 Elo | CHI 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.1 | Points scored | 109.527th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 120.125th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.4 | Margin | −10.627th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 108.726th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 119.229th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.5 | Pace | 100.419th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 4–1126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−42 Elo- Frank Ntilikina left tibia stress fracture−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.