Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints37
- Domantas SabonisAssists13
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Pistons- Bojan BogdanovicPoints26
- Killian HayesAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–110
- Q46.1shot clock turnover131–110
- Q418.2Davion Mitchell offensive rebound131–110
- Q421.1Juan Toscano-Anderson misses driving layup131–110
- Q434.0Juan Toscano-Anderson defensive rebound131–110
- Q436.1Jaden Ivey misses 24-foot three point jumper131–110
- Q447.2Alex Len makes 8-foot two point shot (Kessler Edwards assists)131–110
- Q41:00Alex Len defensive rebound129–110
- Q41:02Jaden Ivey misses 26-foot three point jumper129–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32.1Alec Burks makes 26-foot three pointer (Marcus Sasser assists)SAC 98 – 95 DET · DET 19% → 28% +9DET 19% → 28%+9 pts
- Q410:35De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 101 – 97 DET · SAC 64% → 76% +12SAC 64% → 76%+12 pts
- Q49:34Jalen Duren makes two point shot (Marcus Sasser assists)SAC 101 – 101 DET · DET 32% → 41% +9DET 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q49:19Domantas Sabonis makes 3-foot layup (Malik Monk assists)SAC 103 – 101 DET · SAC 59% → 68% +9SAC 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q48:20Malik Monk makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 108 – 101 DET · SAC 76% → 86% +10SAC 76% → 86%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6.5
- SAC 75%
- Fair odds
- SAC -237
- DET +237 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 124.0 – 117.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1326 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −48 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −24 | SAC crossed 3 time zones and DET crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +187 Elo | SAC 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 111.525th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 122.626th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −11.129th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 108.027th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 118.827th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.5 | Pace | 102.67th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 11th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 2–1429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.