Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints21
- Domantas SabonisAssists5
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
76ers- Tobias HarrisPoints37
- Patrick BeverleyAssists7
- Patrick BeverleyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–112
- Q43.0Kessler Edwards makes 22-foot jumper93–112
- Q43.1Kessler Edwards offensive rebound91–112
- Q46.1JaVale McGee misses 16-foot two point shot91–112
- Q417.1Jaden Springer makes two point shot91–112
- Q418.1Colby Jones bad pass (Furkan Korkmaz steals)91–110
- Q420.1Colby Jones defensive rebound91–110
- Q422.0Jaden Springer misses two point shot91–110
- Q444.0JaVale McGee makes free throw 2 of 291–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:55Keegan Murray makes 26-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 3 – 3 PHI · SAC 48% → 54% +6SAC 48% → 54%+6 pts
- Q110:03Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three pointer (De'Anthony Melton assists)SAC 5 – 6 PHI · PHI 42% → 48% +6PHI 42% → 48%+6 pts
- Q11:31Juan Toscano-Anderson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 19 – 23 PHI · SAC 37% → 44% +7SAC 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q210:54Trey Lyles makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 24 – 29 PHI · SAC 34% → 41% +7SAC 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q210:35Mo Bamba makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)SAC 24 – 32 PHI · PHI 59% → 66% +7PHI 59% → 66%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SAC 50%
- Fair odds
- SAC -118
- PHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 118.9 – 117.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | 0 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Kelly Oubre Jr. −3 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +2 Elo | SAC 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 119.96th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 112.111th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +7.83rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 117.47th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 109.84th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.513th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 13–611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
0 Elo- Kelly Oubre Jr. sore right toe−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.