Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints28
- Dario SaricAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- Khris MiddletonAssists10
- Andre Jackson Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–129
- Q40.0Warriors offensive team rebound118–129
- Q40.1Lester Quinones misses two point shot118–129
- Q43.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 2-foot driving dunk (Brook Lopez assists)118–129
- Q45.1Jonathan Kuminga makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)118–127
- Q48.1Giannis Antetokounmpo bad pass (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)116–127
- Q417.1Jonathan Kuminga makes free throw 2 of 2116–127
- Q417.1Jonathan Kuminga makes free throw 1 of 2115–127
- Q417.1Giannis Antetokounmpo shooting foul114–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:37Klay Thompson makes 26-foot step back jumpshotGS 72 – 65 MIL · GS 46% → 56% +10GS 46% → 56%+10 pts
- Q34:56Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)GS 72 – 72 MIL · MIL 56% → 66% +10MIL 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q49:38Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point shot (Cory Joseph assists)GS 89 – 89 MIL · GS 25% → 38% +12GS 25% → 38%+12 pts
- Q48:21Khris Middleton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)GS 93 – 96 MIL · MIL 62% → 75% +13MIL 62% → 75%+13 pts
- Q48:00Jonathan Kuminga makes 27-foot three pointerGS 96 – 96 MIL · GS 25% → 39% +14GS 25% → 39%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -8.5
- MIL 79%
- Fair odds
- MIL -317
- GS +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 120.0 – 128.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | +74 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +234 Elo | MIL 79.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 76.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 124.42nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 119.424th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +5.07th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 119.14th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 114.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 17–43rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.