Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints21
- Payton PritchardAssists4
- Payton PritchardRebounds4
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints28
- Khris MiddletonAssists7
- Bobby PortisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–135
- Q416.2shot clock turnover102–135
- Q440.2Lamar Stevens makes free throw 2 of 2102–135
- Q440.2Celtics offensive team rebound101–135
- Q440.2Lamar Stevens misses free throw 1 of 2101–135
- Q440.2Thanasis Antetokounmpo shooting foul101–135
- Q446.0Dalano Banton defensive rebound101–135
- Q447.2AJ Green misses 24-foot three point jumper101–135
- Q41:00Chris Livingston defensive rebound101–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Damian Lillard makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Khris Middleton assists)BOS 0 – 3 MIL · MIL 47% → 53% +6MIL 47% → 53%+6 pts
- Q110:29Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)BOS 2 – 8 MIL · MIL 53% → 60% +6MIL 53% → 60%+6 pts
- Q17:29Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)BOS 12 – 19 MIL · MIL 56% → 62% +6MIL 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q16:01Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 15 – 19 MIL · BOS 37% → 44% +6BOS 37% → 44%+6 pts
- Q11:54Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)BOS 23 – 34 MIL · MIL 66% → 72% +6MIL 66% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 65%
- Fair odds
- BOS -112
- MIL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 122.6 – 121.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1673 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +108 | +70 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +105 Elo | BOS 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30121.3 | Points scored | 124.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 119.924th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.4 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.7 | Offense rating | 118.64th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 114.620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 103.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 16–43rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+108 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.