Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints29
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints45
- Derrick WhiteAssists6
- Jaylen BrownRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game120–127
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime120–127
- OT10.1Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns120–127
- OT10.1Karl-Anthony Towns turnover120–127
- OT10.1Karl-Anthony Towns offensive foul120–127
- OT12.1Timberwolves Full timeout120–127
- OT12.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2120–127
- OT12.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2120–126
- OT12.1Kyle Anderson personal take foul120–125
- OT16.1Jaylen Brown defensive rebound120–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:41Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMIN 109 – 107 BOS · BOS 10% → 33% +23BOS 10% → 33%+23 pts
- Q425.2Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)MIN 109 – 111 BOS · BOS 31% → 88% +57BOS 31% → 88%+57 pts
- Q48.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2MIN 111 – 111 BOS · MIN 16% → 49% +33MIN 16% → 49%+33 pts
- OT2:44Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three pointer (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 120 – 118 BOS · MIN 36% → 62% +26MIN 36% → 62%+26 pts
- OT1:04Jayson Tatum makes driving layupMIN 120 – 122 BOS · BOS 53% → 78% +25BOS 53% → 78%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Fair odds
- BOS -244
- MIN +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 108.8 – 115.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1669 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +20 | +72 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +211 Elo | BOS 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.9 | Points scored | 121.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 110.74th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.7 | Margin | +10.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 119.62nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 109.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.2 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 17–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.