Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints36
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds17
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints35
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Derrick Jones Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–115
- Q43.0Kyrie Irving defensive rebound108–115
- Q47.1Anthony Edwards misses 26-foot three point jumper108–115
- Q410.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2108–115
- Q410.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2108–114
- Q410.1Mike Conley personal take foul108–113
- Q411.1Anthony Edwards makes 1-foot driving dunk108–113
- Q418.0Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2106–113
- Q418.0Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Kyle Anderson106–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:52Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 95 – 98 DAL · MIN 21% → 35% +14MIN 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q45:55Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotMIN 98 – 100 DAL · MIN 23% → 39% +16MIN 23% → 39%+16 pts
- Q45:25Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three pointer (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 101 – 100 DAL · MIN 38% → 57% +18MIN 38% → 57%+18 pts
- Q42:59Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point jumperMIN 106 – 106 DAL · DAL 26% → 50% +23DAL 26% → 50%+23 pts
- Q42:05Kyrie Irving makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)MIN 106 – 109 DAL · DAL 50% → 77% +27DAL 50% → 77%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -108
- DAL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.7 – 114.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | +44 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +52 Elo | MIN 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.1 | Points scored | 119.17th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.4 | Points allowed | 117.021st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 115.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 10–717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.