Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints18
- Scoot HendersonAssists10
- Duop ReathRebounds7
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints24
- Jaden HardyAssists9
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–139
- Q414.1Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three point jumper103–139
- Q422.0A.J. Lawson makes free throw 3 of 3100–139
- Q422.0A.J. Lawson makes free throw 2 of 3100–138
- Q422.0A.J. Lawson makes free throw 1 of 3100–137
- Q422.0Rayan Rupert shooting foul100–136
- Q426.0A.J. Lawson defensive rebound100–136
- Q429.0Greg Brown III blocks Rayan Rupert 's 4-foot two point shot100–136
- Q433.0Rayan Rupert defensive rebound100–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:49Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Duop Reath assists)POR 5 – 0 DAL · POR 41% → 47% +6POR 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q110:36Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three pointer (Dwight Powell assists)POR 5 – 3 DAL · DAL 53% → 59% +6DAL 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q19:42Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 8 – 6 DAL · POR 35% → 41% +6POR 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q18:26Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jerami Grant assists)POR 13 – 10 DAL · POR 37% → 43% +6POR 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q17:21Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Josh Green assists)POR 15 – 17 DAL · DAL 61% → 67% +6DAL 61% → 67%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 67%
- Fair odds
- DAL -175
- POR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.3 – 117.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −25 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +121 Elo | DAL 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.4 | Points scored | 118.57th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 117.422nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.9 | Margin | +1.116th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 115.410th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 114.321st of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.5 | Pace | 102.76th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 9–719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.