Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints16
- Scoot HendersonAssists7
- Anfernee SimonsRebounds5
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints41
- Luka DoncicAssists5
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–126
- Q415.2shot clock turnover97–126
- Q439.2Scoot Henderson turnover97–126
- Q439.2Scoot Henderson offensive foul97–126
- Q457.0Jaden Hardy makes free throw 1 of 197–126
- Q457.0Matisse Thybulle shooting foul97–125
- Q457.0Jaden Hardy makes 3-foot two point shot97–125
- Q41:05Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three pointer97–123
- Q41:11Scoot Henderson defensive rebound94–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:18Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 0 – 5 DAL · DAL 70% → 75% +5DAL 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q18:39Anfernee Simons makes 22-foot three point jumperPOR 5 – 11 DAL · POR 19% → 23% +5POR 19% → 23%+5 pts
- Q17:01Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 7 – 18 DAL · DAL 80% → 84% +4DAL 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q15:10Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 13 – 21 DAL · POR 16% → 20% +4POR 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q210:13Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Dereck Lively II assists)POR 29 – 40 DAL · DAL 80% → 85% +5DAL 80% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 67%
- Fair odds
- DAL -195
- POR +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.2 – 118.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +25 | POR: Usual rotation · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | POR crossed 1 time zone and DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +123 Elo | DAL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 118.37th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 118.023rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +0.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 115.310th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.67th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 8–720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.