Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints28
- Mike ConleyAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Magic- Moritz WagnerPoints21
- Anthony BlackAssists4
- Chuma OkekeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–92
- Q419.0Trevelin Queen makes 26-foot three pointer113–92
- Q430.1Caleb Houstan defensive rebound113–89
- Q434.1Troy Brown Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper113–89
- Q457.0Caleb Houstan makes two point shot113–89
- Q457.0Caleb Houstan offensive rebound113–87
- Q459.0Chuma Okeke misses 27-foot three point jumper113–87
- Q41:11Shake Milton makes 11-foot two point shot (Jordan McLaughlin assists)113–87
- Q41:16Troy Brown Jr. defensive rebound111–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:16Karl-Anthony Towns makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 3 – 0 ORL · MIN 52% → 58% +6MIN 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q19:37Karl-Anthony Towns makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 8 – 0 ORL · MIN 62% → 68% +6MIN 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q17:54Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 11 – 6 ORL · ORL 31% → 37% +6ORL 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q28:48Anthony Black makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trevelin Queen assists)MIN 37 – 28 ORL · ORL 21% → 27% +6ORL 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q26:00Trevelin Queen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)MIN 43 – 33 ORL · ORL 18% → 24% +6ORL 18% → 24%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- ORL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 110.2 – 109.6 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | +5 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Joe Ingles −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +32 Elo | MIN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.9 | Points scored | 113.919th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 111.911th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 111.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.1 | Defense rating | 109.33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 13–33rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+5 Elo- Joe Ingles sprained left ankle−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.