Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints30
- Stephen CurryAssists9
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds7
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints39
- Zach LaVineAssists7
- Zach LaVineRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–131
- Q47.1Jonathan Kuminga defensive rebound140–131
- Q49.1Zach LaVine misses 26-foot step back jumpshot140–131
- Q417.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2140–131
- Q417.0Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Dario Saric139–131
- Q417.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2139–131
- Q417.0DeMar DeRozan personal foul138–131
- Q420.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2138–131
- Q420.1Dario Saric enters the game for Jonathan Kuminga138–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:27Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)GS 87 – 84 CHI · GS 41% → 51% +10GS 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q34:23Jonathan Kuminga makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 92 – 88 CHI · GS 45% → 56% +11GS 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q31:23Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)GS 105 – 94 CHI · GS 73% → 82% +9GS 73% → 82%+9 pts
- Q42:57Coby White makes driving floating jump shotGS 128 – 124 CHI · CHI 12% → 23% +11CHI 12% → 23%+11 pts
- Q42:39Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 131 – 124 CHI · GS 79% → 93% +14GS 79% → 93%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4
- CHI 65%
- Fair odds
- CHI -175
- GS +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.3 – 116.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +28 | GS: Usual rotation · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +106 Elo | CHI 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 109.727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 111.78th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −2.023rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 110.723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 112.714th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.0 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 13–918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.