Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints25
- Fred VanVleetAssists10
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds15
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints30
- Coby WhiteAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game119–124
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–124
- OT5.1Bulls defensive team rebound119–124
- OT6.2Fred VanVleet misses 25-foot three point jumper119–124
- OT10.0Rockets Full timeout119–124
- OT10.0Alex Caruso makes free throw 2 of 2119–124
- OT10.0Alperen Sengun enters the game for Aaron Holiday119–123
- OT10.0Bulls offensive team rebound119–123
- OT10.0Alex Caruso misses free throw 1 of 2119–123
- OT10.0Fred VanVleet personal foul119–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q423.0Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot layup (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 112 – 112 CHI · HOU 12% → 49% +38HOU 12% → 49%+38 pts
- OT4:39Cam Whitmore makes dunk (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 114 – 112 CHI · HOU 48% → 61% +13HOU 48% → 61%+13 pts
- OT3:44Nikola Vucevic makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Coby White assists)HOU 116 – 114 CHI · CHI 24% → 37% +13CHI 24% → 37%+13 pts
- OT1:46Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 119 – 120 CHI · CHI 30% → 62% +31CHI 30% → 62%+31 pts
- OT1:04Coby White makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)HOU 119 – 123 CHI · CHI 64% → 92% +28CHI 64% → 92%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1
- CHI 55%
- Fair odds
- CHI -127
- HOU +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 107.8 – 109.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +26 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +34 Elo | CHI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 109.427th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 111.55th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −2.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 110.823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 113.015th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.0 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 12–919th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.