Houston Rockets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints32
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints28
- Duncan RobinsonAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–120
- Q415.1Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper113–120
- Q416.1Fred VanVleet offensive rebound110–120
- Q419.1Fred VanVleet misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot110–120
- Q423.1Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2110–120
- Q423.1Heat offensive team rebound110–119
- Q423.1Bam Adebayo misses free throw 1 of 2110–119
- Q423.1Cam Whitmore enters the game for Alperen Sengun110–119
- Q423.1Alperen Sengun shooting foul110–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:47Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointer (Nikola Jovic assists)HOU 59 – 63 MIA · MIA 56% → 65% +9MIA 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q37:50Tyler Herro makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Bam Adebayo assists)HOU 65 – 71 MIA · MIA 62% → 71% +9MIA 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q37:35Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 68 – 71 MIA · HOU 29% → 38% +9HOU 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q36:35Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 71 – 75 MIA · HOU 26% → 35% +9HOU 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q34:37Nikola Jovic makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 75 – 82 MIA · MIA 66% → 75% +9MIA 66% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1
- MIA 54%
- Fair odds
- MIA -118
- HOU +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 109.6 – 110.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +10 | HOU: Missing Victor Oladipo −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −24 | HOU crossed 1 time zone and MIA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +28 Elo | MIA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.5 | Points scored | 112.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 111.69th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +0.916th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 112.513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.0 | Pace | 99.228th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 9–615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+17 Elo- Victor Oladipo left patellar tendon strain−1 Elo
Heat
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.