Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints33
- Domantas SabonisAssists11
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints29
- Devin BookerAssists11
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–119
- Q40.0Kings offensive team rebound117–119
- Q40.1Malik Monk misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot117–119
- Q41.1Kings Full timeout117–119
- Q41.1Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2117–119
- Q41.1Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2117–118
- Q41.1De'Aaron Fox shooting foul117–117
- Q419.0De'Aaron Fox makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot117–117
- Q429.2Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2115–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q445.1Eric Gordon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)SAC 115 – 115 PHX · PHX 11% → 50% +40PHX 11% → 50%+40 pts
- Q429.2Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2SAC 115 – 116 PHX · PHX 50% → 70% +20PHX 50% → 70%+20 pts
- Q429.2Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2SAC 115 – 117 PHX · PHX 70% → 85% +15PHX 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q419.0De'Aaron Fox makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 117 – 117 PHX · SAC 10% → 50% +40SAC 10% → 50%+40 pts
- Q41.1Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2SAC 117 – 118 PHX · PHX 50% → >99% +50PHX 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 58%
- Fair odds
- PHX -114
- SAC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 118.3 – 119.3 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +60 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +58 Elo | PHX 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 115.814th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 114.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 115.412th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 113.916th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.525th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 11–1120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 2–0 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.