Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints33
- Scoot HendersonAssists9
- Jabari WalkerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–116
- Q48.1shot clock turnover127–116
- Q432.1Anfernee Simons makes 32-foot three pointer127–116
- Q440.1Devin Booker makes 7-foot two point shot127–113
- Q458.0Devin Booker defensive rebound125–113
- Q41:00Scoot Henderson misses 18-foot pullup jump shot125–113
- Q41:06Keita Bates-Diop enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic125–113
- Q41:06Trail Blazers Full timeout125–113
- Q41:06Devin Booker makes dunk (Kevin Durant assists)125–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:13Kris Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)PHX 41 – 43 POR · POR 34% → 41% +7POR 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q27:49Grayson Allen makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 44 – 43 POR · PHX 59% → 66% +7PHX 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q46:50Rayan Rupert makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)PHX 111 – 107 POR · POR 13% → 24% +11POR 13% → 24%+11 pts
- Q44:47Scoot Henderson makes tip shotPHX 113 – 109 POR · POR 13% → 21% +8POR 13% → 21%+8 pts
- Q44:29Kevin Durant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 116 – 109 POR · PHX 79% → 91% +12PHX 79% → 91%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6.5
- PHX 74%
- Fair odds
- PHX -202
- POR +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.9 – 110.5 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | −54 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −15, Moses Brown −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +186 Elo | PHX 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 107.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 116.818th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −9.828th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 105.030th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 114.618th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 6th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 5–1125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−54 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon right abductor muscle−15 Elo
- Moses Brown left wrist injury−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 2–1 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.