Portland Trail Blazers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints21
- Shaedon SharpeAssists4
- Ibou BadjiRebounds7
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints23
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–112
- Q420.0Ibou Badji defensive rebound84–112
- Q422.1Ryan Arcidiacono misses 26-foot three point jumper84–112
- Q445.1Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rayan Rupert assists)84–112
- Q452.1Toumani Camara defensive rebound81–112
- Q454.1Precious Achiuwa misses driving layup81–112
- Q455.0Precious Achiuwa offensive rebound81–112
- Q457.0Precious Achiuwa misses driving layup81–112
- Q41:11Rayan Rupert makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Justin Minaya assists)81–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:48Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)POR 2 – 7 NY · NY 78% → 83% +4NY 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:26Anfernee Simons makes 28-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 9 – 10 NY · POR 19% → 24% +5POR 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q17:17OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)POR 11 – 15 NY · NY 76% → 81% +5NY 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q16:42OG Anunoby makes three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)POR 11 – 18 NY · NY 81% → 85% +4NY 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q16:01OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)POR 14 – 21 NY · NY 81% → 85% +4NY 81% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -11
- NY 85%
- Fair odds
- NY -307
- POR +307 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.6 – 118.1 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | +36 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +302 Elo | NY 85.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 75.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 115.813th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.4 | Margin | +3.39th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–14 | Road vs home | 10–48th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.