Portland Trail Blazers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints38
- Anfernee SimonsAssists11
- Duop ReathRebounds13
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints42
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists10
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game134–127
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime134–127
- OT18.2Trendon Watford out of bounds bad pass turnover134–127
- OT23.2Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2134–127
- OT23.2Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 2133–127
- OT23.2Trendon Watford enters the game for Dennis Smith Jr.132–127
- OT23.2Dennis Smith Jr. personal foul132–127
- OT24.1Nic Claxton makes dunk132–127
- OT24.1Nic Claxton offensive rebound132–125
- OT24.1Dennis Smith Jr. misses two point shot132–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:24Anfernee Simons makes 28-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 113 – 111 BKN · POR 35% → 71% +35POR 35% → 71%+35 pts
- Q45.1Shaedon Sharpe makes driving layupPOR 115 – 113 BKN · POR 49% → >99% +50POR 49% → >99%+50 pts
- Q41.1Mikal Bridges makes 14-foot two point shotPOR 115 – 115 BKN · BKN <1% → 50% +50BKN <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:02Malcolm Brogdon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 124 – 123 BKN · POR 28% → 57% +29POR 28% → 57%+29 pts
- OT1:26Malcolm Brogdon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 127 – 123 BKN · POR 59% → 87% +28POR 59% → 87%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -5.5
- BKN 71%
- Fair odds
- BKN -193
- POR +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 110.0 – 114.9 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | −2 | POR: Missing Jabari Walker −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +157 Elo | BKN 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 65.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.2 | Points scored | 114.617th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.8 | Margin | −1.522nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 114.114th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 115.624th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–14 | Road vs home | 10–820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−26 Elo- Jabari Walker left knee soreness−3 Elo
Nets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.