Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints14
- Anfernee SimonsAssists2
- Duop ReathRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Josh GiddeyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game77–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter77–139
- Q49.2shot clock turnover77–139
- Q432.0Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound77–139
- Q433.2Rayan Rupert misses 15-foot jumper77–139
- Q442.1Ibou Badji defensive rebound77–139
- Q444.1Jaylin Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper77–139
- Q41:02Jaylin Williams defensive rebound77–139
- Q41:05Toumani Camara misses dunk77–139
- Q41:06Toumani Camara offensive rebound77–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 5 – 0 OKC · POR 24% → 29% +5POR 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q110:52Jalen Williams makes dunk (Josh Giddey assists)POR 5 – 2 OKC · OKC 71% → 75% +3OKC 71% → 75%+3 pts
- Q110:22Josh Giddey makes two point shotPOR 5 – 4 OKC · OKC 74% → 78% +3OKC 74% → 78%+3 pts
- Q110:02Duop Reath makes 5-foot two point shot (Jerami Grant assists)POR 7 – 4 OKC · POR 22% → 26% +3POR 22% → 26%+3 pts
- Q19:51Josh Giddey makes driving layup (Chet Holmgren assists)POR 7 – 6 OKC · OKC 74% → 78% +3OKC 74% → 78%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12
- OKC 87%
- Fair odds
- OKC -391
- POR +391 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.9 – 122.3 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −50 | +97 | POR: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +335 Elo | OKC 87.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 122.34th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 114.815th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.9 | Margin | +7.63rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 119.04th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.6 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 305–15 | Road vs home | 14–57th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−50 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon rest−12 Elo
Thunder
+97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 OKC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.