Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Jalen WilliamsAssists12
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints25
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–120
- Q410.1Josh Giddey defensive rebound128–120
- Q413.2Chet Holmgren blocks Tyler Herro 's 5-foot two point shot128–120
- Q417.1Chet Holmgren bad pass (Duncan Robinson steals)128–120
- Q425.2Josh Giddey defensive rebound128–120
- Q429.1Haywood Highsmith misses 18-foot step back jumpshot128–120
- Q437.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Nikola Jovic128–120
- Q437.1Heat Full timeout128–120
- Q437.1Chet Holmgren makes 5-foot dunk (Josh Giddey assists)128–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:38Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 68 – 69 MIA · OKC 44% → 53% +9OKC 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q34:52Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Nikola Jovic assists)OKC 86 – 85 MIA · MIA 32% → 42% +10MIA 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q31:09Haywood Highsmith makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)OKC 92 – 94 MIA · MIA 42% → 54% +12MIA 42% → 54%+12 pts
- Q355.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)OKC 95 – 94 MIA · OKC 46% → 58% +12OKC 46% → 58%+12 pts
- Q410:36Kenrich Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 105 – 96 MIA · OKC 78% → 86% +9OKC 78% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 63%
- Fair odds
- OKC -138
- MIA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.8 – 115.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +106 | +23 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +93 Elo | OKC 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.2 | Points scored | 112.723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 111.69th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.6 | Margin | +1.115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 113.617th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.1 | Pace | 99.228th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 10–614th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+106 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.