Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jabari WalkerPoints17
- Scoot HendersonAssists4
- Jabari WalkerRebounds13
Timberwolves- Rudy GobertPoints24
- Mike ConleyAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–116
- Q47.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound93–116
- Q47.0Josh Minott blocks Toumani Camara 's 4-foot two point shot93–116
- Q411.1Leonard Miller lost ball turnover (Justin Minaya steals)93–116
- Q415.0Troy Brown Jr. offensive rebound93–116
- Q418.0Leonard Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper93–116
- Q428.0Toumani Camara makes free throw 2 of 293–116
- Q428.0Toumani Camara makes free throw 1 of 292–116
- Q428.0Josh Minott personal foul91–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:44Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)POR 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 83% → 87% +4MIN 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q111:15Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)POR 0 – 6 MIN · MIN 87% → 90% +3MIN 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q110:25Mike Conley makes 25-foot three pointer (Anthony Edwards assists)POR 0 – 9 MIN · MIN 90% → 92% +3MIN 90% → 92%+3 pts
- Q29:05Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)POR 25 – 39 MIN · MIN 93% → 95% +2MIN 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q27:08Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 34 – 46 MIN · POR 4% → 6% +2POR 4% → 6%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -13
- MIN 89%
- Fair odds
- MIN -493
- POR +493 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 103.1 – 115.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −48 | +44 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +366 Elo | MIN 89.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 82.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 83.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.4 | Points scored | 113.122nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 107.81st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−9.4 | Margin | +5.45th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 107.11st of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.020th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–16 | Road vs home | 14–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.