Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints29
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists17
- Myles TurnerRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints37
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists6
- Jabari WalkerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [Pacers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)115–118
- Q40.0Myles Turner makes 20-foot jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)115–118
- Q42.0Pacers offensive team rebound113–118
- Q42.0Matisse Thybulle blocks Tyrese Haliburton 's 23-foot three point jumper113–118
- Q44.1Bennedict Mathurin enters the game for Aaron Nesmith113–118
- Q44.1Pacers Full timeout113–118
- Q44.1Jabari Walker makes free throw 2 of 2113–118
- Q44.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound113–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:10Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 68 – 71 POR · IND 43% → 53% +10IND 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q347.1Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 81 – 84 POR · IND 36% → 48% +12IND 36% → 48%+12 pts
- Q411:14Jalen Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 84 – 90 POR · IND 23% → 34% +11IND 23% → 34%+11 pts
- Q410:47Kris Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Matisse Thybulle assists)IND 84 – 93 POR · POR 67% → 78% +11POR 67% → 78%+11 pts
- Q43:45Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 101 – 106 POR · IND 9% → 21% +12IND 9% → 21%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -7.5
- IND 77%
- Fair odds
- IND -214
- POR +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 121.1 – 115.3 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +75 | −56 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +210 Elo | IND 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.2 | Points scored | 107.230th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.4 | Points allowed | 116.719th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −9.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 105.630th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 115.019th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Pace | 100.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 6–1225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–1 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.