Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints21
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints30
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists6
- Jerami GrantRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–105
- Q40.0Cam Thomas enters the game for Dorian Finney-Smith103–105
- Q40.0Royce O'Neale enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie103–105
- Q40.0Duop Reath enters the game for Anfernee Simons103–105
- Q40.0Ibou Badji enters the game for Jabari Walker103–105
- Q40.0Nets Full timeout103–105
- Q40.0Anfernee Simons makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot103–105
- Q45.0Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Cam Thomas103–103
- Q45.0Nic Claxton enters the game for Royce O'Neale103–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:29Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three pointer (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 99 – 95 POR · BKN 60% → 83% +23BKN 60% → 83%+23 pts
- Q454.1Anfernee Simons makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Malcolm Brogdon assists)BKN 101 – 101 POR · POR 22% → 49% +28POR 22% → 49%+28 pts
- Q49.1Jerami Grant makes tip shotBKN 101 – 103 POR · POR 50% → 97% +47POR 50% → 97%+47 pts
- Q45.0Cameron Johnson makes driving layup (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 103 – 103 POR · BKN <1% → 50% +50BKN <1% → 50%+50 pts
- Q40.0Anfernee Simons makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotBKN 103 – 105 POR · POR 49% → 100% +51POR 49% → 100%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -2.5
- BKN 59%
- Fair odds
- BKN -117
- POR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.7 – 111.5 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | −58 | BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +66 Elo | BKN 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 107.330th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 117.119th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.8 | Margin | −9.827th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 105.430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 115.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 5–1225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−25 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe not with team−11 Elo
Trail Blazers
−58 Elo- Deandre Ayton not with team−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–1 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.