Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints26
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints45
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Donovan MitchellRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–111
- Q410.0Cam Thomas makes driving layup (Lonnie Walker IV assists)102–111
- Q425.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2100–111
- Q425.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2100–110
- Q425.1Cam Thomas personal take foul100–108
- Q425.1Nic Claxton lost ball turnover (Donovan Mitchell steals)100–108
- Q431.1Dennis Smith Jr. defensive rebound100–109
- Q434.0Caris LeVert misses free throw 2 of 2100–109
- Q434.0Dean Wade enters the game for Sam Merrill100–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:09Caris LeVert makes 25-foot step back jumpshotBKN 21 – 32 CLE · CLE 80% → 85% +5CLE 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q49:51Nic Claxton makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2BKN 71 – 80 CLE · BKN 6% → 11% +5BKN 6% → 11%+5 pts
- Q44:28Donovan Mitchell makes 30-foot three pointer (Jarrett Allen assists)BKN 84 – 94 CLE · CLE 91% → 97% +6CLE 91% → 97%+6 pts
- Q44:14Lonnie Walker IV makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 87 – 94 CLE · BKN 3% → 9% +6BKN 3% → 9%+6 pts
- Q43:50Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot step back jumpshotBKN 87 – 97 CLE · CLE 92% → 97% +5CLE 92% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5.5
- CLE 71%
- Fair odds
- CLE -194
- BKN +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 110.9 – 115.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | −12 | +46 | BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −11 · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +154 Elo | CLE 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 113.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 111.56th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.712th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 110.87th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.0 | Pace | 99.924th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−12 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe left knee injury−11 Elo
Cavaliers
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.