San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints24
- Tre JonesAssists4
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints29
- Donovan MitchellAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–117
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound115–117
- Q40.0Jeremy Sochan misses 30-foot three point shot115–117
- Q40.1Tre Jones defensive rebound115–117
- Q42.1Victor Wembanyama blocks Caris LeVert's layup115–117
- Q48.1Keldon Johnson personal foul115–117
- Q410.1Sam Merrill enters the game for Isaac Okoro115–117
- Q410.1Cavaliers Full timeout115–117
- Q410.1Jeremy Sochan out of bounds bad pass turnover115–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:13Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three pointer (Donovan Mitchell assists)SA 67 – 67 CLE · CLE 61% → 70% +9CLE 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q35:50Donovan Mitchell makes 29-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)SA 72 – 77 CLE · CLE 75% → 82% +7CLE 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q310.1Cedi Osman makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malaki Branham assists)SA 84 – 85 CLE · SA 21% → 30% +10SA 21% → 30%+10 pts
- Q30.0Caris LeVert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)SA 84 – 88 CLE · CLE 69% → 79% +10CLE 69% → 79%+10 pts
- Q441.2Victor Wembanyama makes driving layup (Devin Vassell assists)SA 115 – 117 CLE · SA 3% → 17% +13SA 3% → 17%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11
- CLE 85%
- Fair odds
- CLE -377
- SA +377 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 109.8 – 119.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | +44 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +306 Elo | CLE 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 113.121st of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 111.46th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.6 | Margin | +1.715th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 110.76th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Pace | 99.924th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–14 | Road vs home | 11–817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.