Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints31
- Kyle LowryAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds20
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints26
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game96–95
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime96–95
- OT1.0Tyler Herro defensive rebound96–95
- OT1.0Mikal Bridges misses 9-foot pullup jump shot96–95
- OT11.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 2 of 296–95
- OT11.1Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Dennis Smith Jr.95–95
- OT11.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 1 of 295–95
- OT11.1Dennis Smith Jr. shooting foul94–95
- OT24.1Nic Claxton offensive rebound94–95
- OT25.1Nic Claxton offensive goaltending turnover94–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q452.1Tyler Herro makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 85 – 84 BKN · MIA 35% → 66% +30MIA 35% → 66%+30 pts
- Q424.0Tyler Herro makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotMIA 87 – 86 BKN · MIA 29% → 72% +43MIA 29% → 72%+43 pts
- Q44.1Mikal Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 88 – 88 BKN · BKN 8% → 50% +42BKN 8% → 50%+42 pts
- OT11.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 1 of 2MIA 95 – 95 BKN · MIA 20% → 50% +30MIA 20% → 50%+30 pts
- OT11.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 96 – 95 BKN · MIA 50% → 80% +30MIA 50% → 80%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 59%
- Fair odds
- MIA -120
- BKN +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.6 – 111.2 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | −18 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +60 Elo | MIA 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.3 | Points scored | 114.618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 116.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.821st of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 113.916th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 10–920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−18 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe left knee−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–2 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.