Orlando Magic at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints25
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds9
Heat- Duncan RobinsonPoints23
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–99
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound96–99
- Q43.0Paolo Banchero misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot96–99
- Q47.1Haywood Highsmith makes free throw 2 of 296–99
- Q47.1Haywood Highsmith makes free throw 1 of 296–98
- Q47.1Caleb Houstan personal foul96–97
- Q48.1Haywood Highsmith defensive rebound96–97
- Q48.1Paolo Banchero misses layup96–97
- Q49.1Paolo Banchero offensive rebound96–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:19Bam Adebayo makes 1-foot dunkORL 90 – 94 MIA · MIA 70% → 84% +14MIA 70% → 84%+14 pts
- Q42:05Moritz Wagner makes driving layup (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 92 – 94 MIA · ORL 15% → 29% +15ORL 15% → 29%+15 pts
- Q41:10Paolo Banchero makes 14-foot two point shotORL 94 – 95 MIA · ORL 15% → 36% +21ORL 15% → 36%+21 pts
- Q438.1Paolo Banchero makes 14-foot two point shotORL 96 – 95 MIA · ORL 32% → 67% +35ORL 32% → 67%+35 pts
- Q418.1Bam Adebayo makes pullup jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)ORL 96 – 97 MIA · MIA 26% → 75% +49MIA 26% → 75%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 59%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- ORL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 110.2 – 112.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +8 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +62 Elo | MIA 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 112.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 112.111th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.228th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 10–719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.