Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints26
- Terry RozierAssists7
- LaMelo BallRebounds10
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints24
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–104
- Q418.1Haywood Highsmith defensive rebound87–104
- Q422.0Bryce McGowens misses 26-foot step back jumpshot87–104
- Q429.1Bryce McGowens defensive rebound87–104
- Q433.0Josh Richardson misses 25-foot three point jumper87–104
- Q453.1James Bouknight makes free throw 2 of 287–104
- Q453.1Hornets offensive team rebound86–104
- Q453.1James Bouknight misses free throw 1 of 286–104
- Q453.1Orlando Robinson shooting foul86–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:50Nick Richards makes 6-foot two point shot (Cody Martin assists)CHA 2 – 2 MIA · CHA 25% → 28% +3CHA 25% → 28%+3 pts
- Q18:27Miles Bridges makes tip shotCHA 4 – 4 MIA · CHA 25% → 28% +4CHA 25% → 28%+4 pts
- Q18:13Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 4-foot two point shotCHA 4 – 6 MIA · MIA 72% → 75% +4MIA 72% → 75%+4 pts
- Q13:01P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)CHA 11 – 17 MIA · CHA 15% → 19% +4CHA 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q12:43Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three pointer (Nikola Jovic assists)CHA 11 – 20 MIA · MIA 81% → 85% +4MIA 81% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -9
- MIA 82%
- Fair odds
- MIA -263
- CHA +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 108.0 – 115.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | −5 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Kevin Love −9 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +258 Elo | MIA 81.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.9 | Points scored | 112.525th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 111.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.6 | Margin | +0.916th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.7 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.129th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–15 | Road vs home | 11–715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−5 Elo- Kevin Love left knee contusion−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–3 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.