Charlotte Hornets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints28
- Ish SmithAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds9
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints26
- Tre JonesAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–135
- Q42.0shot clock turnover99–135
- Q426.0shot clock turnover99–135
- Q450.0JT Thor makes 1-foot dunk (Nick Smith Jr. assists)99–135
- Q41:02Blake Wesley makes driving layup97–135
- Q41:12Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound97–133
- Q41:15Devonte' Graham misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot97–133
- Q41:26Nick Smith Jr. makes 4-foot two point shot97–133
- Q41:31Devonte' Graham makes 23-foot three point shot (Mamadi Diakite assists)95–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:50JT Thor makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 25 – 30 SA · CHA 27% → 33% +6CHA 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q29:38Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point shot (Tre Jones assists)CHA 27 – 35 SA · SA 67% → 73% +6SA 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q29:09Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malaki Branham assists)CHA 29 – 38 SA · SA 69% → 76% +6SA 69% → 76%+6 pts
- Q28:57LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 32 – 38 SA · CHA 24% → 31% +6CHA 24% → 31%+6 pts
- Q28:37Jeremy Sochan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHA 32 – 41 SA · SA 69% → 76% +6SA 69% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2.5
- SA 60%
- Fair odds
- SA -128
- CHA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.0 – 116.9 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1361 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −4 | CHA: Missing Cody Martin −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +67 Elo | SA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.2 | Points scored | 111.925th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 122.326th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.9 | Margin | −10.427th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 106.928th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.4 | Defense rating | 116.925th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.0 | Pace | 104.03rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–14 | Road vs home | 2–1529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−23 Elo- Cody Martin strained groin−4 Elo
Spurs
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.