San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints17
- Victor WembanyamaAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints21
- Killian HayesAssists12
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–108
- Q418.1Blake Wesley defensive rebound130–108
- Q421.0Marcus Sasser misses 22-foot jumper130–108
- Q432.1Blake Wesley makes free throw 1 of 1130–108
- Q432.1Ausar Thompson shooting foul129–108
- Q432.1Blake Wesley makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot129–108
- Q440.2Mamadi Diakite defensive rebound127–108
- Q443.1Ausar Thompson misses 23-foot three point jumper127–108
- Q41:00Ausar Thompson defensive rebound127–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:28Bojan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)SA 8 – 6 DET · DET 32% → 37% +6DET 32% → 37%+6 pts
- Q14:43Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point shot (Tre Jones assists)SA 21 – 12 DET · SA 71% → 76% +6SA 71% → 76%+6 pts
- Q210:20Cedi Osman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 36 – 24 DET · SA 77% → 82% +5SA 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q21:23Bojan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three pointer (Killian Hayes assists)SA 58 – 49 DET · DET 15% → 21% +6DET 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q25.1Jeremy Sochan makes 27-foot jump bank shot (Tre Jones assists)SA 63 – 51 DET · SA 79% → 85% +6SA 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -3
- SA 61%
- Fair odds
- SA -142
- DET +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 121.0 – 118.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1361 | 1319 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −54 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +81 Elo | SA 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 111.425th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 122.827th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.4 | Margin | −11.430th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 107.927th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 119.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.0 | Pace | 102.67th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–15 | Road vs home | 2–1529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.