Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints52
- Jusuf NurkicAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds15
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints24
- Brandon IngramAssists11
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–109
- Q41.1Naji Marshall makes 25-foot three pointer123–109
- Q47.1shot clock turnover123–106
- Q432.0Dyson Daniels makes layup123–106
- Q435.0Dyson Daniels offensive rebound123–104
- Q436.0Dyson Daniels misses 10-foot two point shot123–104
- Q440.0Chimezie Metu lost ball turnover (Dyson Daniels steals)123–104
- Q441.1Jordan Hawkins makes 28-foot three pointer123–104
- Q447.0Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound123–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:25Devin Booker makes 26-foot three pointer (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 3 – 2 NO · PHX 32% → 38% +6PHX 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q19:50Devin Booker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 9 – 4 NO · PHX 40% → 46% +6PHX 40% → 46%+6 pts
- Q17:35Zion Williamson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)PHX 13 – 13 NO · NO 58% → 64% +6NO 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q15:07Herbert Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)PHX 23 – 20 NO · NO 50% → 57% +7NO 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q132.2Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 41 – 26 NO · PHX 65% → 72% +6PHX 65% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5.5
- NO 70%
- Fair odds
- NO -182
- PHX +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 113.6 – 118.1 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | +87 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +148 Elo | NO 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 116.912th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 112.011th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +4.87th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 116.38th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 111.510th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.218th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 13–815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.