Charlotte Hornets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints29
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds12
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints28
- Brandon IngramAssists10
- Brandon IngramRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–132
- Q422.0Nathan Mensah makes free throw 2 of 2112–132
- Q422.0Nathan Mensah makes free throw 1 of 2111–132
- Q422.0Jose Alvarado personal foul110–132
- Q435.1Naji Marshall makes 3-foot two point shot110–132
- Q443.1James Bouknight makes 23-foot three point jumper (JT Thor assists)110–130
- Q41:01Naji Marshall makes two point shot107–130
- Q41:04Naji Marshall defensive rebound107–128
- Q41:09Leaky Black misses free throw 2 of 2107–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:03Terry Rozier makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Cody Martin assists)CHA 5 – 2 NO · CHA 20% → 24% +5CHA 20% → 24%+5 pts
- Q110:34CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)CHA 5 – 5 NO · NO 75% → 80% +5NO 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q26:52P.J. Washington makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotCHA 49 – 55 NO · CHA 8% → 14% +6CHA 8% → 14%+6 pts
- Q25.2Terry Rozier makes 26-foot step back jumpshotCHA 61 – 64 NO · CHA 15% → 20% +6CHA 15% → 20%+6 pts
- Q311:40Herbert Jones makes three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)CHA 61 – 69 NO · NO 83% → 88% +5NO 83% → 88%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -13.5
- NO 90%
- Fair odds
- NO -412
- CHA +412 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 107.5 – 118.3 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | +78 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +381 Elo | NO 90.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 79.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 116.512th of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 112.011th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.8 | Margin | +4.57th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 115.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.3 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–16 | Road vs home | 12–817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.