New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jordan HawkinsPoints34
- Jonas ValanciunasAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints33
- Dwight PowellAssists8
- Dwight PowellRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–108
- Q414.1Derrick Jones Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2118–108
- Q414.1Derrick Jones Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2118–107
- Q414.1Herbert Jones shooting foul118–106
- Q421.1Larry Nance Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2118–106
- Q421.1Larry Nance Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2117–106
- Q421.1Tim Hardaway Jr. personal foul116–106
- Q441.1Herbert Jones defensive rebound116–106
- Q444.1Josh Green misses 25-foot three point jumper116–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:14Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three pointerNO 81 – 77 DAL · NO 49% → 60% +11NO 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q318.1Herbert Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 88 – 81 DAL · NO 62% → 73% +11NO 62% → 73%+11 pts
- Q49:44Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three pointerNO 92 – 88 DAL · DAL 24% → 36% +12DAL 24% → 36%+12 pts
- Q48:13Kyrie Irving makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)NO 95 – 91 DAL · DAL 22% → 34% +13DAL 22% → 34%+13 pts
- Q46:43Jordan Hawkins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 100 – 93 DAL · NO 68% → 81% +13NO 68% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -0.5
- DAL 49%
- Fair odds
- DAL -143
- NO +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 116.2 – 119.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | −26 | NO: Missing Trey Murphy III −18 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +8 Elo | NO 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 118.87th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 117.119th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +1.712th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 115.710th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.017th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.6 | Pace | 102.66th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 12–816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−9 Elo- Trey Murphy III injury/illness−18 Elo
Mavericks
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–1 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.