Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints32
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists6
- Xavier TillmanRebounds11
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–103
- Q411.1A.J. Lawson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)120–103
- Q417.2shot clock turnover120–100
- Q439.0John Konchar defensive rebound120–100
- Q439.1A.J. Lawson misses tip shot120–100
- Q439.1A.J. Lawson offensive rebound120–100
- Q443.0Seth Curry misses 23-foot three point shot120–100
- Q450.0Markieff Morris defensive rebound120–100
- Q452.1Jake LaRavia misses layup120–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:13Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Luka Doncic assists)MEM 71 – 60 DAL · DAL 25% → 33% +8DAL 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q38:57Vince Williams Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)MEM 74 – 60 DAL · MEM 67% → 75% +8MEM 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q38:36Marcus Smart makes 27-foot three pointerMEM 77 – 62 DAL · MEM 71% → 78% +8MEM 71% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:59Kyrie Irving makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Dwight Powell assists)MEM 83 – 72 DAL · DAL 21% → 29% +8DAL 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q34:28Desmond Bane makes 23-foot three point jumper (David Roddy assists)MEM 88 – 75 DAL · MEM 70% → 78% +9MEM 70% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6.5
- DAL 74%
- Fair odds
- DAL -279
- MEM +279 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 110.7 – 118.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | +54 | MEM: Missing Santi Aldama −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +186 Elo | DAL 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 119.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 116.820th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.7 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 115.710th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.86th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 11–715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−40 Elo- Santi Aldama left knee contusion−5 Elo
Mavericks
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.