New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds15
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints44
- Kyrie IrvingAssists10
- Dwight PowellRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–128
- Q40.0Jalen Brunson makes 1-foot two point shot124–128
- Q44.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2122–128
- Q44.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2122–127
- Q44.1Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul122–126
- Q46.0Jalen Brunson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot122–126
- Q411.0Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 2120–126
- Q411.0Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for Markieff Morris120–125
- Q411.0Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Seth Curry120–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:22Julius Randle makes 22-foot three point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 82 – 88 DAL · NY 27% → 36% +9NY 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q33:23Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)NY 84 – 95 DAL · DAL 72% → 80% +9DAL 72% → 80%+9 pts
- Q42:10Jalen Brunson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)NY 114 – 119 DAL · NY 3% → 12% +9NY 3% → 12%+9 pts
- Q41:08Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)NY 120 – 121 DAL · NY 9% → 38% +29NY 9% → 38%+29 pts
- Q427.0Josh Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)NY 120 – 124 DAL · DAL 70% → 98% +29DAL 70% → 98%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6
- NY 72%
- Fair odds
- NY -157
- DAL +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 119.0 – 115.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −32 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +162 Elo | NY 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 118.67th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 116.920th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +1.713th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 115.410th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.8 | Pace | 102.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 11–819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.