New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints30
- Brandon IngramAssists5
- Larry Nance Jr.Rebounds8
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints42
- Kyrie IrvingAssists7
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–125
- Q40.0Pelicans offensive team rebound120–125
- Q40.0Brandon Ingram misses 71-foot jump bank shot120–125
- Q41.1Maxi Kleber makes free throw 2 of 2120–125
- Q41.1Maxi Kleber makes free throw 1 of 2120–124
- Q41.1CJ McCollum personal take foul120–123
- Q43.1Maxi Kleber defensive rebound120–123
- Q46.1Brandon Ingram misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot120–123
- Q414.1Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 2120–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:16Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)NO 111 – 112 DAL · DAL 33% → 53% +20DAL 33% → 53%+20 pts
- Q43:29Grant Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)NO 111 – 115 DAL · DAL 54% → 75% +21DAL 54% → 75%+21 pts
- Q443.1Brandon Ingram makes 13-foot two point shot (Herbert Jones assists)NO 119 – 121 DAL · NO 5% → 21% +16NO 5% → 21%+16 pts
- Q417.1Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2NO 120 – 121 DAL · NO 9% → 26% +17NO 9% → 26%+17 pts
- Q414.1Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 2NO 120 – 122 DAL · DAL 76% → 93% +16DAL 76% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6
- NO 72%
- Fair odds
- NO -166
- DAL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 119.2 – 115.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +90 | −12 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +166 Elo | NO 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 118.57th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 117.118th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 115.710th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 114.317th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.48th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 12–918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 2–1 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.