Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints31
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints22
- T.J. McConnellAssists7
- Pascal SiakamRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–109
- Q40.0Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound114–109
- Q43.1Aaron Nesmith misses 24-foot three point shot114–109
- Q44.1Pacers Full timeout114–109
- Q46.1Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three pointer (Jamal Murray assists)114–109
- Q427.2Pascal Siakam makes tip shot111–109
- Q427.2Pascal Siakam offensive rebound111–107
- Q429.0Pascal Siakam misses two point shot111–107
- Q432.1Pacers Full timeout111–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:42Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)DEN 102 – 103 IND · IND 32% → 54% +22IND 32% → 54%+22 pts
- Q43:12Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 105 – 103 IND · DEN 46% → 69% +23DEN 46% → 69%+23 pts
- Q42:29Andrew Nembhard makes 2-foot two point shotDEN 107 – 107 IND · IND 30% → 47% +17IND 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q41:38Nikola Jokic makes layupDEN 109 – 107 IND · DEN 53% → 74% +21DEN 53% → 74%+21 pts
- Q41:16Jamal Murray makes two point shotDEN 111 – 107 IND · DEN 76% → 91% +15DEN 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 63%
- Fair odds
- DEN -174
- IND +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 121.2 – 117.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +101 | +5 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | IND crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +96 Elo | DEN 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 124.61st of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 123.129th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +1.512th of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 118.92nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 117.426th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.7 | Pace | 104.91st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 13–815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.