Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints25
- Jamal MurrayAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds19
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints41
- Joel EmbiidAssists10
- Joel EmbiidRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–126
- Q49.0Tobias Harris defensive rebound121–126
- Q412.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope misses 26-foot three point jumper121–126
- Q420.1Nuggets defensive team rebound121–126
- Q424.1Tyrese Maxey misses free throw 2 of 2121–126
- Q424.1Nikola Jokic enters the game for Christian Braun121–126
- Q424.1Jamal Murray enters the game for Peyton Watson121–126
- Q424.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2121–126
- Q424.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope personal take foul121–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:57Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 98 – 99 PHI · DEN 31% → 41% +11DEN 31% → 41%+11 pts
- Q48:41Reggie Jackson makes 27-foot step back jumpshotDEN 111 – 105 PHI · DEN 61% → 74% +13DEN 61% → 74%+13 pts
- Q47:28Marcus Morris Sr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)DEN 111 – 110 PHI · PHI 33% → 48% +15PHI 33% → 48%+15 pts
- Q46:58Tyrese Maxey makes 3-foot two point shotDEN 113 – 113 PHI · PHI 43% → 53% +11PHI 43% → 53%+11 pts
- Q46:38Joel Embiid makes two point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)DEN 113 – 115 PHI · PHI 53% → 64% +11PHI 53% → 64%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2.5
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -143
- DEN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.2 – 115.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +105 | +99 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +64 Elo | PHI 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 119.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 111.68th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 117.56th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 15–69th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+105 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.