Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints20
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints41
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–124
- Q420.1Nate Williams makes free throw 2 of 2115–124
- Q420.1Nate Williams makes free throw 1 of 2114–124
- Q420.1Marcus Morris Sr. enters the game for Danuel House Jr.113–124
- Q420.176ers Full timeout113–124
- Q420.1Danuel House Jr. shooting foul113–124
- Q424.2Cam Whitmore defensive rebound113–124
- Q427.1Jock Landale blocks Furkan Korkmaz 's 6-foot two point shot113–124
- Q448.1Amen Thompson out of bounds bad pass turnover113–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)HOU 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 73% → 78% +5PHI 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q17:02Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 10 – 11 PHI · HOU 21% → 26% +5HOU 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q16:46Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)HOU 10 – 14 PHI · PHI 74% → 79% +5PHI 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q15:33Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 15 – 16 PHI · HOU 21% → 27% +5HOU 21% → 27%+5 pts
- Q13:01Nicolas Batum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Danuel House Jr. assists)HOU 17 – 21 PHI · PHI 73% → 78% +5PHI 73% → 78%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7
- PHI 75%
- Fair odds
- PHI -270
- HOU +270 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.0 – 117.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +106 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +190 Elo | PHI 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.7 | Points scored | 119.66th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 111.56th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 117.36th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 109.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 14–611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+106 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.