Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints29
- Fred VanVleetAssists12
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds11
Pistons- Kevin Knox IIPoints19
- Jaden IveyAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–110
- Q43.1Fred VanVleet defensive rebound112–110
- Q43.1Jaden Ivey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot112–110
- Q46.1Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Jalen Green112–110
- Q46.1Pistons Full timeout112–110
- Q46.1Kevin Knox II defensive rebound112–110
- Q48.1Fred VanVleet misses 30-foot three point jumper112–110
- Q429.0Isaiah Stewart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)112–110
- Q434.0Jaden Ivey offensive rebound112–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:59Alec Burks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)HOU 98 – 103 DET · DET 55% → 71% +17DET 55% → 71%+17 pts
- Q42:58Fred VanVleet makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotHOU 104 – 107 DET · HOU 18% → 31% +13HOU 18% → 31%+13 pts
- Q41:42Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumperHOU 108 – 107 DET · HOU 32% → 64% +32HOU 32% → 64%+32 pts
- Q41:14Fred VanVleet makes 18-foot pullup jump shotHOU 110 – 107 DET · HOU 66% → 85% +20HOU 66% → 85%+20 pts
- Q429.0Isaiah Stewart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)HOU 112 – 110 DET · DET <1% → 14% +13DET <1% → 14%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8
- HOU 78%
- Fair odds
- HOU -222
- DET +222 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 119.1 – 113.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1306 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −62 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +221 Elo | HOU 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 111.326th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 123.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −11.730th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 107.927th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 119.228th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.0 | Pace | 102.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 2–1630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.