Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Cam WhitmorePoints22
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints32
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–145
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–145
- Q410.1shot clock turnover113–145
- Q434.1Amen Thompson makes tip shot113–145
- Q434.1Amen Thompson offensive rebound111–145
- Q435.1Boban Marjanovic misses 6-foot hook shot111–145
- Q444.1Payton Pritchard makes driving layup111–145
- Q451.1Amen Thompson out of bounds lost ball turnover111–143
- Q458.1Luke Kornet makes tip shot111–143
- Q458.1Luke Kornet offensive rebound111–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:03Jalen Green makes 26-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 14 – 8 BOS · HOU 30% → 36% +6HOU 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q15:38Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)HOU 20 – 18 BOS · BOS 65% → 71% +6BOS 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q210:50Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)HOU 36 – 38 BOS · BOS 71% → 77% +6BOS 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q29:19Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point jumperHOU 38 – 41 BOS · BOS 72% → 78% +6BOS 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q25:29Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)HOU 50 – 54 BOS · BOS 73% → 79% +6BOS 73% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Fair odds
- BOS -316
- HOU +316 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.3 – 119.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1639 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | +69 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +263 Elo | BOS 82.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.6 | Points scored | 120.85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 111.66th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +9.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 119.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 110.15th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 100.023rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 18–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.