Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints42
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints17
- Tyus JonesAssists13
- Deni AvdijaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–104
- Q40.1Aaron Gordon defensive rebound113–104
- Q44.0Jordan Poole misses 23-foot three point jumper113–104
- Q410.0Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2113–104
- Q410.0Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2112–104
- Q410.0Landry Shamet personal foul111–104
- Q412.1Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Daniel Gafford111–104
- Q412.1Nuggets Full timeout111–104
- Q412.1Kyle Kuzma makes driving layup (Tyus Jones assists)111–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:57Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)DEN 4 – 9 WSH · WSH 25% → 31% +5WSH 25% → 31%+5 pts
- Q19:14Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 7 – 10 WSH · DEN 67% → 73% +6DEN 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q28:06Jamal Murray makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 40 – 37 WSH · DEN 74% → 80% +6DEN 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q26:25Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)DEN 44 – 43 WSH · WSH 19% → 24% +6WSH 19% → 24%+6 pts
- Q24:30Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)DEN 49 – 48 WSH · WSH 19% → 25% +6WSH 19% → 25%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10
- DEN 83%
- Fair odds
- DEN -363
- WSH +363 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 122.0 – 112.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +101 | −23 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +275 Elo | DEN 83.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 77.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 78.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 125.230th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.9 | Margin | −9.528th of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 110.225th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 119.328th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.7 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 3–1528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.