San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints24
- Tre JonesAssists12
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds9
Wizards- Marvin Bagley IIIPoints21
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–127
- Q42.0Wizards offensive team rebound131–127
- Q42.0Jeremy Sochan blocks Corey Kispert 's 30-foot three point jumper131–127
- Q45.1Corey Kispert enters the game for Kyle Kuzma131–127
- Q45.1Landry Shamet enters the game for Tyus Jones131–127
- Q45.1Wizards Full timeout131–127
- Q45.1Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound131–127
- Q46.1Devin Vassell misses free throw 2 of 2131–127
- Q46.1Devin Vassell makes free throw 1 of 2131–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:05Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 121 – 121 WSH · SA 22% → 48% +27SA 22% → 48%+27 pts
- Q41:48Tyus Jones makes 15-foot pullup jump shotSA 121 – 123 WSH · WSH 51% → 72% +20WSH 51% → 72%+20 pts
- Q41:34Tre Jones makes layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 123 – 123 WSH · SA 27% → 49% +22SA 27% → 49%+22 pts
- Q41:12Marvin Bagley III makes tip shotSA 123 – 125 WSH · WSH 51% → 75% +24WSH 51% → 75%+24 pts
- Q453.0Jeremy Sochan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 126 – 125 WSH · SA 21% → 64% +43SA 21% → 64%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wizards 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -2
- WSH 58%
- Fair odds
- WSH -135
- SA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 117.7 – 119.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1369 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | −40 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +56 Elo | WSH 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 115.415th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.3 | Points allowed | 125.030th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.2 | Margin | −9.728th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 110.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 119.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.7 | Pace | 104.82nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–18 | Road vs home | 3–1428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.