Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints29
- Deni AvdijaAssists9
- Deni AvdijaRebounds14
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints21
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–99
- Q418.2Bruno Fernando makes driving layup (Garrison Mathews assists)127–99
- Q433.1Hamidou Diallo makes tip shot127–97
- Q433.1Hamidou Diallo offensive rebound125–97
- Q436.1Jules Bernard misses 22-foot three point jumper125–97
- Q452.1Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound125–97
- Q454.1Seth Lundy misses free throw 2 of 2125–97
- Q454.1Seth Lundy makes free throw 1 of 2125–97
- Q454.1Hamidou Diallo shooting foul125–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110.0Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)WSH 30 – 22 ATL · WSH 50% → 57% +7WSH 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q13.1Trae Young makes 33-foot three pointerWSH 30 – 25 ATL · ATL 42% → 50% +7ATL 42% → 50%+7 pts
- Q211:42Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point shot (Delon Wright assists)WSH 33 – 25 ATL · WSH 51% → 58% +7WSH 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q26:35Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)WSH 42 – 33 ATL · ATL 30% → 37% +7ATL 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q25:51Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 45 – 33 ATL · WSH 63% → 70% +7WSH 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4
- ATL 66%
- Fair odds
- ATL -171
- WSH +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 122.6 – 126.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −45 | +28 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +113 Elo | ATL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 122.34th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.9 | Points allowed | 124.029th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.8 | Margin | −1.821st of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 117.27th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.1 | Defense rating | 118.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.8 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–18 | Road vs home | 6–1024th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.