San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints26
- Tre JonesAssists12
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints36
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–109
- Q48.1shot clock turnover99–109
- Q433.1Victor Wembanyama makes alley oop layup (Tre Jones assists)99–109
- Q437.1Jalen Johnson makes alley oop dunk shot (Trae Young assists)97–109
- Q451.1Saddiq Bey defensive rebound97–107
- Q454.1Victor Wembanyama misses 25-foot three point shot97–107
- Q459.1Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound97–107
- Q41:02Dejounte Murray misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot97–107
- Q41:22Tre Jones makes layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)97–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:14Jalen Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)SA 0 – 9 ATL · ATL 71% → 77% +5ATL 71% → 77%+5 pts
- Q13:27Garrison Mathews makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)SA 10 – 21 ATL · ATL 75% → 80% +5ATL 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q44:27Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)SA 89 – 99 ATL · ATL 90% → 96% +6ATL 90% → 96%+6 pts
- Q43:56Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Tre Jones assists)SA 93 – 99 ATL · SA 6% → 12% +6SA 6% → 12%+6 pts
- Q43:14Jalen Johnson makes driving layup (Trae Young assists)SA 93 – 101 ATL · ATL 90% → 95% +5ATL 90% → 95%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- SA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 121.5 – 124.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +10 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +55 Elo | ATL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.6 | Points scored | 121.74th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.7 | Points allowed | 124.129th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−9.1 | Margin | −2.424th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 116.68th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 118.927th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 304–15 | Road vs home | 6–1124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.