Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints24
- Zach LaVineAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds16
Spurs- Tre JonesPoints30
- Keldon JohnsonAssists5
- Tre JonesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–116
- Q411.0Bulls defensive team rebound122–116
- Q411.0Jeremy Sochan misses 27-foot three point jumper122–116
- Q419.1Spurs Full timeout122–116
- Q419.1Alex Caruso makes free throw 2 of 2122–116
- Q419.1Alex Caruso makes free throw 1 of 2121–116
- Q419.1Cedi Osman personal take foul120–116
- Q419.2Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound120–116
- Q422.1Devin Vassell misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot120–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:58Jevon Carter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 103 – 106 SA · CHI 25% → 39% +14CHI 25% → 39%+14 pts
- Q47:35Cedi Osman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)CHI 103 – 109 SA · SA 61% → 75% +14SA 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q46:00Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 110 – 111 SA · CHI 31% → 48% +17CHI 31% → 48%+17 pts
- Q41:26Keldon Johnson makes driving dunkCHI 117 – 115 SA · SA 11% → 26% +15SA 11% → 26%+15 pts
- Q431.1Nikola Vucevic makes 22-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 120 – 116 SA · CHI 70% → 98% +28CHI 70% → 98%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3.5
- CHI 64%
- Fair odds
- CHI -153
- SA +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.7 – 112.5 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SA and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +41 | 0 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +97 Elo | CHI 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 112.525th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 121.726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.1 | Margin | −9.226th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 107.428th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 116.225th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.5 | Pace | 104.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–12 | Road vs home | 3–1528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.